Migration into the state, coupled with generally higher fertility among Latinos than in the non-Hispanic white population, has driven an increase in the state's Latino population, according to the Chris Potter with the U.S. Census Bureau.Texas added 234,000 Hispanic residents this past year, the most of any state, bringing the overall Hispanic population to roughly 11.2 million. "We had projected that the Latino population would exceed the ... white population by 2020 and that's probably not going to happen," Potter said. Based on the new trends, he said, he now expects Latinos to outnumber non-Hispanic white people in Texas by 2022. That's probably a result of a slight decline in birth rates among Latinos as well as a slowing of immigration from Mexico and other Latin American countries over the last decade, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Meanwhile, growth in the state's white population has effectively flattened. In any case, demographers have said for years that Texas' increasing ethnic diversity will shape the state's future. The Lone Star State's populations of Asians and people who identified as two or more races both grew by about 4 percent over the year. And at 3.8 million, Texas had the largest black or African-American population of any state in the country.
Experts caution against expecting demographic shifts — which tend to move slowly — to immediately translate into political shifts. In Texas, at least, Southern Methodist University political scientist Cal Jillson told The Dallas Morning News when former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez became the first Latina to win a major-party nomination for governor, "there's a 20-year gulf between where we are now and when a Hispanic electorate will help create a [Democratic] majority."
- Dallas Morning News, June 21, 2018